Midseason 2019: Southeast

Taking a closer look at each division as we pass midseason in our inaugural campaign. We'll start with the Southeast division, which has the lowest combined winning percentage in the Eastern Conference. [ Midseason Division Rankings | Preseason Southeast Preview ]

WAS, Jay (69-38-1)
With a likely insurmountable lead, it looks like WAS will probably take the Southeast division pretty handily. With a 0.644 winning percentage over twelve weeks, they are also ranked top four in the entire league and third best in the East — although they face an uphill battle chasing down NYK and CHI ahead of them.

Led by possible Rookie of Year Ja Morant, the incredible Kelly Oubre, plus CJ McCollum, Harrison Barnes, and Julius Randle, Jay’s team is a nice mix of youth and experience. They do seem to have one weakness though, as two of their only three losses have come against the big ball squads, ORL and MEM. (Their only other loss was a 2-7 drubbing by NYK in WK10.) Still, it’s not easy to beat any of the big ball squads so this may not even be a weakness.

On the season, WAS is ranked second overall in PTS, and are top ten in 3PT, REB, and AST as well. Over the past month, STL have also snuck into the top ten for them. In fact, the only categories that WAS continually struggles with is the two percentages and turnovers, leading to their ODE split of 5/11/27, and a lower than expected fourteenth net rating. However, being good at so many categories has to come at a cost, which is the high turnovers. That weakness might actually be a strength as WAS is number two in Games Played this season at 437 (36.4 avg) per week. Coach Jay has been playing everyone to great effect, and has even turned up the GP in the past month, pushing that average to 38.3 for the last four weeks, tying them with MEM for the lead.

Barring a total collapse or injury, WAS can book their ticket to the postseason and start tinkering around the edges to see if they can try to take down one of the other contenders. So far, WAS has engaged in two trades this season — interestingly, with the two big ball teams who beat them — moving Jordan Bell to ORL for Ersan Ilyasova, and then more recently, Cory Joseph to MEM for Kent Bazemore. Both of those trades were straight player for player, and WAS owns all of their picks moving forward. Could we see some championship moves coming soon for this ring chaser?

ORL, Jim & Jason (53-55)
Right on the playoff bubble, ORL is fighting it out with division mate CHA for the seventh or eighth seed in the East. They’ve suffered losses to MIA, PHI, TOR, and was on the short end of a 0-9 drubbing by NYK. Also, they lost their matchup against MEM in a battle of big ball, taking only two categories that week. However, that still means ORL has won seven games on the season, leaving them at 7-5 if we counted just W/L, which isn’t bad at all! Most impressively, Jason and Jim have taken down each of their division mates, including powerhouse WAS in WK4, which portends well for the future.

The huge core of Andre Drummond, Clint Capela, and Montrezl Harrell has given ORL the expected great rankings in FG%, REB, BLK — top five in all three, top two in FG% and REB — but they are basically a zero on offense, with ODE splits of 24/9/21, and a net rating of twenty-three. ORL ranks in the bottom five in 3PT, AST, and FT%, and are just about league average in PTS and STL. Note: Over the past month the STL have gone up to top ten status, while BLK have fallen to league average, probably due to Capela’s missed games.

For a team on the postseason bubble, this is a franchise with upside. Leading scorer Jaylen Brown has made the near All Star leap and Miles Bridges has shown flashes of being an all around contributor. Maybe the return of Norman Powell will juice the offense a little, and it’ll be interesting to see if ORL continues to hedge big ball or tries to diversify in the coming weeks. So far, ORL has swung three trades, bringing in the likes of Nicolas Claxton, Jordan Bell, and TJ Leaf. They own nearly all of their own picks moving forward, so there’s plenty of room for action if they want to push for a playoff spot.

CHA, Joe (52-55-1)
Coming in midseason can be tough, especially for a league of this size and post-setup auction. After inheriting the franchise during WK7, Seattle Joe has compiled an impressive 27-17-1 record in five matchups, with wins versus BOS, PHI, and TOR in the past three weeks. That’s an upgrade to a 0.614 winning percentage with Joe at the helm versus the 0.397 under previous ownership. That would be a top five winning percentage if spread out over the season. They’ve also increased their Games Played from nineteenth ranked on the season to sixth over the past few weeks. Nice stuff!

Some of that recent success has to be attributed to the return to action of Kevin Love, as well as the rising contribution from rookie Darius Garland. Pushing the all offense theme, Love and Garland have teamed up with franchise cornerstones Devin Booker and Donovan Mitchell to give CHA to high rankings in PTS, AST, 3PT, and FT% — top three in AST and FT% — over the past month of games. That’s impressive for a young franchise. And let’s not forget Devonte’ Graham, who gives CHA five big scoring threats. Add in sophomore Troy Brown Jr. throwing down regular double-doubles, and the future is bright for CHA. (Imagine if they had also kept Damion Lee — shipped out to DEN a few days after new ownership took over for a RD2!)

To elevate themselves up a level though, CHA may want to think about finding some balance. Their ODE splits are 6/19/26 over the past month, leading to a net rating of twentieth. REB and STL have been on the rise too though, so maybe the defense will find continue to get better. However, CHA is basically league worst in BLK and TO, with their FG% hovering around bottom five on the season. Could Kevin Love be a trade target since he seems to be the old man of the group? The bench is a little thin and Love could make a huge difference for a contender. Then again, it’s been awhile since Seattle has seen a basketball team so maybe Joe will want to make a push and take his chances in the postseason. Either way, great job to our newest owner!

ATL, Derek (42-64-2)
Welcome to the tenth worst team in the league! Things could be worse in ATL. I mean, at least Trae Young is a likely NBA All Star? Injuries to Marvin Bagley, Blake Griffin, and Reggie Jackson have all but torpedoed ATL’s season and this team hasn’t been fully healthy at any point. Young has had nobody to help him, and the second leading scorer on the team is JJ Redick, who is thirty-five and begging for a trade to a winning situation. With the league’s third-worst Games Played on the season, it’s hard to put much stock into ATL's net ODE rating of twenty-ninth, as their splits of 19/28/22 have come on only 301 GP — the league average is 368.

In a way, it’s impressive that ATL is almost league average on offense, as they aren’t horrible in 3PT and FT%. Still, over the past month this team has been bottom ten in every category save FT% — and TO, but that hardly counts. They have given up two 1-8 losses on the season as well. The good news is that they are capable of beating the other bad teams in the league, with a win over MIA and even a two game winning streak against SAS and NOP in WK 8/9. However, even with three wins on the season, there’s no getting around the fact that this team is mired in the bottom third of the league, especially with Griffin now out for the season.

With all of their own picks moving forward — ATL is one of the teams that haven’t made a trade yet — it looks like a big rebuild will be in order for GM Derek over the coming seasons. The duo of Young and Bagley should be a good core to build on, but there’s not a lot of other high end talent here. We’re hoping Redick gets shifted over to a contender, and it could be time for ATL to start acquiring assets to grow alongside next year’s surefire lottery pick. Give Trae some help!

MIA, Kevin & Jason (40-68)
Stuck near the bottom third of the standings themselves, part of MIA’s lack of first season success has been by design. Taking rookies Brandon Clarke and Jarrett Culver early was bound to give MIA some growing pains, but the absence of franchise cornerstone Kyrie Irving — and Otto Porter — for most of the season has sunk them to the bottom. After a spirited first week versus WAS, and a WK3 win over division foe ORL, MIA went through a five week stretch where they were creamed 2-7 in every matchup — against CLE, MEM, ATL, NOP, and HOU. That’s a tough schedule, of course, with four current playoff teams, but still, not a great showing. However, MIA has now picked up three total wins on the season after taking out BOS and PHI in their last two weeks and maybe they can push NYK in WK13 with Irving back!

Let’s talk about that league leading efficiency though! Led by Brandon Clarke’s incredible FG%, MIA is actually top three on the season in that category, and they are similarly well ranked in TO since well, most of their guys barely handle the ball. With a bottom five Games Played on the season, MIA can still take two categories each week, but due to their bottom ten ranking just about everywhere else, it’s been mainly loss after loss. Interestingly, MIA’s BLK have remained league average for most of the season, with an uptick to top five in the past month, perhaps due to the strong play of Daniel Gafford? There’s also some decent STL possibility here, with Irving, Marcus Smart, and Frank Ntilikina in the backcourt.

It’ll be interesting to see if Irving can put any dent in this team’s 26/22/1 ODE splits on the offensive side, but it looks like MIA will be about bottom ten for the rest of the season unless something drastic happens. Kevin & Jason’s one move was to trade Nerlens Noel to MEM for Dwight Powell and Darius Miller way back in the beginning of the season, but there don’t seem to be any obvious trade candidates so it’s possible South Beach will remain closed for business the rest of the way.